Arizona Housing Recovery

 

USA Today Housing Map

In a recent article I was reading, I came across this map showing state by state when they were predicted to see a housing recovery ( http://tinyurl.com/d6durw ). As you can see, Arizona is actually one of the first states predicted to see a recovery in 2009. Although this map was published in April of this year, in my view, I have not seen anything that has fundamentally changed in our market since that time. We continue to see strengthening in the market and inventories continue to decline. There is still a mad rush of people trying to scoop up the bargains in the outlying areas of the Valley while they last. The $8,000 tax credit is slated to end on November 30th and I believe we will see continued pressure from first time home buyers taking advantage of this credit and this market.

The only way to really know when we have seen a recovery and what states were affected first, will only come with hindsight.  I would tell you that there are probably as many predictions out there are there are people who predict. I am not one of those people. I do try to watch the market and stay abreast of what others are saying about the market. I would also tell you that I tend to rely more heavily on local statistics and not as much on the National ones. Things can vary greatly from state to state and region to region and generalizing can be dangerous. The other problem I see with National statistics is they are typically behind. Often what you read about or hear on the news is data that is months old. In this changing economy, a lot can happen in a few months.

Here is what I do feel comfortable telling you. We are at historically low interest rates. We are at historically low housing prices. If you take out your own crystal ball and try to predict where you think housing prices and interest rates will go from here, I think there is only one direction you will see and that is UP.Yes,we will continue to see short sales over the next couple of years. Yes, we will continue to see foreclosures and lenders trying to sell off the foreclosed homes they have in inventory. But I believe at this point it will be at a manageable pace and the market will continue to absorb them as they come on. Whether you are looking for your first home, for a bargain on a second home or just looking for a good real estate investment, don’t kick yourself later by letting this opportunity pass you buy. I don’t want to have to look any of you in the eye one day and say, “I told you so.”

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